I think I'd really like to get an L2501 with loader, probably gear transmission but possibly HST. Or maybe I have to be more stingy and get a B series in the low or mid 20 hp range. But I know very little about tractor pricing. I guess I need to go used, but, how old? How do I compare age in hours and age in years? How big a price difference does the transmission make? How do I balance the value of being newer with the value of being more powerful and heavier? How in the world do I know if I'm getting an OK deal?
So I looked up a bunch of advertised Kubota tractors on tractorhouse.com and wrote down the price and a few specs. I got the year and the hours, and the type of drive, as well as the asking price. There was some confusion in all of this. For example, what kind of drive does a tractor model ending in -DTHST have? Elsewhere on this site I found some great info on model numbers, for example, the first two numerals are the horsepower. I had no idea my B6200 was so powerful and really should be more guarded when I operate it. It also occurred to me that the weight of the tractor should cost something on its own, even when accounting for horsepower. For example, the L series and B series around 25 or 26 horsepower have very different weights, and that's got to cost. So I also looked up the weight of each model. I only included tractors that do have a loader, but do not have a cab or come with a trailer or mower or other big extras. I did this for tractors I thought were more or less in my range, twenty something horspower or maybe thirty something.
And then I wrote a statistical analysis program to study how asking price depends on the other numbers. I figured that the new price of a tractor would go up with horsepower, but not necessarily proportionally -- that is, a 50 hp tractor doesn't have to cost five times what a 10 hp tractor does. So I figured the price depended on horsepower raised to some power. Also, the weight probably works like that too, but raised to a different power. Then I assumed that the price of a used machine probably goes down by a few percent each year. It's not going to lose the same dollar value each year, because a $20000 tractor might reasonably cost $18000 when it's a year old, a two thousand dollar loss per year, but if you wait until it is 11 years old they're not going to pay you two thousand dollars to take it. I figured the same thing for hours, with the years and hours effects blending together. I used The SAS System, from SAS Institute of Cary NC (their usage rules require stating that if you publish results).
The result I got gives me a list of tractor models with years and hours listed, and the price they asked, plus two new things: what my analysis expects should be the asking price, and what percentage their price is above or below what the analysis expects. I put them in order with the best deal first and the worst deal last.
Here are some examples, the very best deals:
Model Year Hours Asking Expected %LowOrHi
L3901DT 2017 850 12359 17989.68 -31.2995
B2320HSD 2014 647 10500 13804.82 -23.9396
L2500DT 1998 2820 6950 8891.31 -21.8338
B3350HST 2016 156 14300 17973.80 -20.4397
L3800HST 2014 240 15500 19233.30 -19.4106
And here are some examples, the very worst deals:
Model Year Hours Asking Expected %LowOrHi
B2650HSD 2018 178 23400 16767.81 39.5531
B2650HSD 2018 186 23900 16753.60 42.6559
B2650HSD 2018 240 23900 16658.31 43.4719
L2900GST 1998 3655 13800 9239.98 49.3510
B2650HSD 2017 175 25900 16539.54 56.594
I think that's amazing, somebody offering an L3901 that ought to have plenty of life in it for only about $12,000.
And also that somebody would try to get almost $26000 for a B2650HSD a couple years old with a couple hundred hours.
So there are all kinds of issues with trying to figure this out. I don't know how many typos got into this, or whether I missed that somebody's trying to throw a trailer into the deal, et cetera. And this is all based on asking price, and I have no data on how much less than asking people wind up paying. Since my list of results is pretty long I'm going to put it in a separate post. I am attaching three interesting graphs to another post shortly, also.
The one mystery I'm still hopeless about is this: What became of the hand warmer? It used to be so great when plowing snow on my B6200 to reach forward and wrap my gloved hands around it, down lower if early in the job and up higher if later. They positioned it really well, within reach and spanning eye level. It was for some reason really noisy and a bit stinky occasionally, but still an excellent accessory. I'm sorry to see that the newer models I'm looking at seem to have dropped it. Though they did add a snow melter directed around the front wheels, and I guess that could be useful....
So I looked up a bunch of advertised Kubota tractors on tractorhouse.com and wrote down the price and a few specs. I got the year and the hours, and the type of drive, as well as the asking price. There was some confusion in all of this. For example, what kind of drive does a tractor model ending in -DTHST have? Elsewhere on this site I found some great info on model numbers, for example, the first two numerals are the horsepower. I had no idea my B6200 was so powerful and really should be more guarded when I operate it. It also occurred to me that the weight of the tractor should cost something on its own, even when accounting for horsepower. For example, the L series and B series around 25 or 26 horsepower have very different weights, and that's got to cost. So I also looked up the weight of each model. I only included tractors that do have a loader, but do not have a cab or come with a trailer or mower or other big extras. I did this for tractors I thought were more or less in my range, twenty something horspower or maybe thirty something.
And then I wrote a statistical analysis program to study how asking price depends on the other numbers. I figured that the new price of a tractor would go up with horsepower, but not necessarily proportionally -- that is, a 50 hp tractor doesn't have to cost five times what a 10 hp tractor does. So I figured the price depended on horsepower raised to some power. Also, the weight probably works like that too, but raised to a different power. Then I assumed that the price of a used machine probably goes down by a few percent each year. It's not going to lose the same dollar value each year, because a $20000 tractor might reasonably cost $18000 when it's a year old, a two thousand dollar loss per year, but if you wait until it is 11 years old they're not going to pay you two thousand dollars to take it. I figured the same thing for hours, with the years and hours effects blending together. I used The SAS System, from SAS Institute of Cary NC (their usage rules require stating that if you publish results).
The result I got gives me a list of tractor models with years and hours listed, and the price they asked, plus two new things: what my analysis expects should be the asking price, and what percentage their price is above or below what the analysis expects. I put them in order with the best deal first and the worst deal last.
Here are some examples, the very best deals:
Model Year Hours Asking Expected %LowOrHi
L3901DT 2017 850 12359 17989.68 -31.2995
B2320HSD 2014 647 10500 13804.82 -23.9396
L2500DT 1998 2820 6950 8891.31 -21.8338
B3350HST 2016 156 14300 17973.80 -20.4397
L3800HST 2014 240 15500 19233.30 -19.4106
And here are some examples, the very worst deals:
Model Year Hours Asking Expected %LowOrHi
B2650HSD 2018 178 23400 16767.81 39.5531
B2650HSD 2018 186 23900 16753.60 42.6559
B2650HSD 2018 240 23900 16658.31 43.4719
L2900GST 1998 3655 13800 9239.98 49.3510
B2650HSD 2017 175 25900 16539.54 56.594
I think that's amazing, somebody offering an L3901 that ought to have plenty of life in it for only about $12,000.
And also that somebody would try to get almost $26000 for a B2650HSD a couple years old with a couple hundred hours.
So there are all kinds of issues with trying to figure this out. I don't know how many typos got into this, or whether I missed that somebody's trying to throw a trailer into the deal, et cetera. And this is all based on asking price, and I have no data on how much less than asking people wind up paying. Since my list of results is pretty long I'm going to put it in a separate post. I am attaching three interesting graphs to another post shortly, also.
The one mystery I'm still hopeless about is this: What became of the hand warmer? It used to be so great when plowing snow on my B6200 to reach forward and wrap my gloved hands around it, down lower if early in the job and up higher if later. They positioned it really well, within reach and spanning eye level. It was for some reason really noisy and a bit stinky occasionally, but still an excellent accessory. I'm sorry to see that the newer models I'm looking at seem to have dropped it. Though they did add a snow melter directed around the front wheels, and I guess that could be useful....
